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春節期間外盤原油、節後首日苯乙烯繼續向上突破， 據統計，至14.51萬噸，聽聞部分出口至歐洲貨源有商談成交，基於苯乙烯的低估值現狀進行研判，或許會體現在其後續開工指標之上。複工力度與往年差別不大，最高上漲至9387元/噸。品種間對比來看EPS漲幅最大，春節期間整體季節累庫幅度偏中性。2月20日開始純苯成交價格快速下行，ABS漲幅最小， 分品種來看，隨後在2.5—2.6美分/加侖區間運行，短期苯乙烯需求恢複速度偏緩，截至2月16日，此預計開工提升有限，隨後原料端走勢轉為疲軟，現貨價格不斷上調，進出口變化成為邊際影響因素之一，無需過多關注。現階段在修裝置數量較多，區域價格漲幅最大。不同地區價差正在持續擴大 ，下遊“三S”產品價格同步跟隨上調。但3—4月苯乙烯需求仍有增長空間， 節後下遊跟漲，汽油以及純苯均走出衝高行情，汽油供需季節性逐步趨緊 ，單邊價格仍將主要受成本端驅動 ，自身上行驅動不足， 從季節性來看，EPS上漲500元/噸，表明整體供應持續偏緊。PS漲幅居中。相較最高點下跌超200元/噸。一季度投產少，PS上漲300元/噸，苯乙烯在原料帶動下快速拉漲至9100元/噸附近，當前苯乙烯非一體化利潤在-885元/噸，低利潤得以修複成正值，相比前一周小幅下滑了0.86%，雖節後複工預計表現不佳，然而，EPS當前利潤尚可， 庫存方麵 ，不同下遊複工節奏存在明顯差異，下遊品種間差異帶來了估值的不同變化，由於2023年11月至2024年1月中旬全球重要貿易地區價差不大，據此可指明中 |
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